If you’re a buyer and you’re not taking advantage of these incredible wholesale prices, you could be making a huge mistake. I work with dozens of investors, and let me break down the numbers for you.
Before the pandemic, home prices in Fresno were pretty predictable:
South of Ashlan: around $175/sq ft
Ashlan to Herndon: $185–195/sq ft
North of Herndon: about $205/sq ft
From late 2020 through June 2025, almost everything jumped to $300/sq ft. Before the pandemic, investors and I were buying homes for $135/sq ft and flipping them for $185–205/sq ft. But in late 2020, everything changed. If you were in real estate, you saw it too. Suddenly, the best wholesale price you could get was $195–235/sq ft, and the flip price hovered around $300/sq ft. These numbers were more in line with expensive markets like San Francisco or Los Angeles, definitely not typical for Fresno.
Local investors were frustrated, but out-of-town buyers entered the scene because they were comfortable with those numbers.
Fast forward to the end of 2024 and early 2025: prices remained high, interest rates stayed up, add in the 2024 election, plus current macroeconomics, and buyers pull back. The result? Prices have dropped 8–10%.
Let’s break that down:
A $500,000 house last year is now around $450,000.
Homes selling at $300/sq ft are now at $250/sq ft.
This Memorial Day Weekend, you’ll hear a lot of commercials for auto and furniture sales, but the real sale is on housing. Think of it as a “Red Tag Sale! Save $50,000 This Weekend Only!”
Clients and friends often ask me, “What’s next?” Here’s what I’m seeing:
First, many sellers who started the process last fall priced their homes too high, not because they were greedy, but because Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) looks backward, while the real estate market is always forward-looking. The numbers we used in November aren’t holding up today. For example, I have a listing near Buchanan High School where two identical homes recently sold for $640,000, so we started there. But we quickly dropped the price to $599,000—just $262/sq ft. I also have a listing in Stonebridge reduced to $200 sq ft, which is some of the prices Stonebridge has been in years.
Second, sellers who listed this year, since February, have largely adjusted to the market. For instance, I have a listing that appraised for $575,000, but we priced it at $525,000 ($253/sq ft). Another appraised at $1.1M, but we listed it for $849,000 ($292/sq ft).
Based on my research and firsthand experience, I believe we’re at the bottom. Prices have dropped, but sales activity is picking up. My newest listings got offers the first weekend, and I have another property at $369,000 that already has multiple offers over asking.
Some buyers tell me they’re waiting for the macroeconomic uncertainty to settle. But here’s the thing: when that happens, it might be too late. Prices will likely bounce back.
So if you’re a buyer, my advice is simple: don’t wait. Take advantage of these prices. Don’t hesitate to make a low offer or ask for seller credits for repairs or a 2-1 Buydown. You’re not offending anyone—you’re just being smart.